Event Risk Vs Variability Risk Vs Ambiguity Risk Vs Emergent Risk

This is one topic I did not explain in all the videos in EduHubSpot Simulator. You know why? Because I always believed in teaching quality stuff, stuff that is important and not give large quantities of information that will overwhelm the students who are already stressed with work and studying for the big exam. There are a few topics from PMBOK^® 6th edition that I ask my students to skip and this topic was one of them. I think I was wrong. During my usual lessons learned call with my Mentor Program student who recently successfully cleared the exam told me:

"Varun, you should not skip this topic. It is important."

So I thought, why not, let me pen it down. So here we are and without wasting time, let's go straight into it. Oh!! By the way, as you know, I love giving real life examples, so don't be surprised with some funky images. Hahaha

Event Risk

What is risk?

It's an uncertain event that may or not happen. So Event Risk is a risk that has not yet happened on the project. There could be chance that it may not happen at all. But if it does happen it may impact us. For example: I want to go camping and one of the risk that I identified is that it may rain and that will impact my equipment. One of the mitigation option I considered using was to take a rain proof tent so that my equipment is safe.

So, when I actually go camping, it may or may not rain. But if it rains, I am prepared. This is known as Event Risk. By the way, the image above is not a rain proof tent so you might need to research a little if you are actually going camping. Relying on this image might lead to slight trouble. hahaha

Maybe something like this?

Variability Risk

In order to understand this type of risk. First think of a definition of Variability.

What is variability?

Something which is not consistent or does not have a fixed pattern. So Variability Risks are risks which happen because of inconsistencies. Let's continue using the same camping scenario to decribe this. Let's say I am planning to drive to my campsite. Best case scenario is it will take me 2 hrs. to reach the destination. But what if I hit a lot of traffic on the way or there was an accident because of which one side of the road is blocked? This type of risk is known as Variability Risk. By the way, I just hope I don't have to drive in the traffic shown in the image! Hahaha

Ambiguity Risk

Ambiguity is some kind of vagueness. What do I mean by that? It means, I know about a particular topic but I don't have complete knowledge about it. In short I would say risk happening from imperfect knowledge. For example, let's say on my camping trip, I know how to setup a normal tent but since this is rain proof tent, I don't have complete knowledge about it. So risk arising from this situation is known as Ambiguity Risk.

Emergent Risk

Emergent risks are known as "Unknown Unknowns". The risks which I was not able to identify at all, as they are well outside of my thought process. They are the kind of risks I couldn't identify as I don't know what I am looking for. I have no knowledge or no clue about it. For instance, on my camping trip, if I got this super technical camera with me which has thousands of features. But in the excitement of going camping, I forgot to carry the user's manual and since I am not that tech savvy, I don't know how to set it up myself. These types of risks are known as Emergent Risks.

How was it?

I hope this short article made your life a little easier. If you believe it did and you want more such explanantion with real life examples check out more in depth explanantion of various PMP^® topics HERE. Also, please leave me a feedback if you like at varun.anand@eduhubspot.com.

Happy learning!!